Exiting Iraq Equal Catch-22

By: Herman Lugaro

When U.S. troops leave Iraq, there will not be any easy solutions to forestall a return to violence facing the people of Iraq. The challenge stems from Iraq’s divisions among its three major factions: the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam, and the Kurds, an ethnic group that reside mostly in Iraq’s Northeast. With this in mind, the U.S. may be facing a no-win situation or “Catch 22” when dealing with the options of staying or withdrawing from Iraq.

The Shia, believed widely to have the support of neighboring Iran, hold the majority of power in Iraq’s parliamentary government. The Kurds, who maintain a degree of territorial sovereignty, have engaged in cross-border conflicts with Turkey. The Sunnis, meanwhile, now find themselves in the role of disgruntled minority; this after having enjoyed power when Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq. When Iraq is left alone to take care of itself, the danger looms that these groups will clash for control over territory and resources. Amer Mohammed, 41, a teacher from Baiji, Salahuddin underlined this dilemma in comments recorded on a New York Times newsblog. “The departure of the American forces will make a problem,” said Mohammed, “and their remaining will make one too. I don’t know what the best is. My real feeling is to see my country liberated and not threatened. This goal is far from reality now. Our problems are many: we run day and night to provide water and gas for our families and we don’t think about the future.”

Iraq and the U.S. have agreed to a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which allows for the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. The agreement calls for U.S. troops to leave Iraqi cites and withdraw to outlying bases by June 30, 2009. More importantly, U.S. troops are scheduled to pullout from Iraq by Dec. 31, 2011. "The period of the timetabled withdrawal gives us enough time to complete our abilities -- training, combat and technical -- and secures us great support" said General Abdel Qadir Jassim, Iraq’s Defense Minister, in a news conference in late November. Whether Iraqi government forces will in fact be ready by the proposed withdrawal date remains to be seen and is the subject of much debate. “The Iraqi government is, by and large, just an alliance or a conglomeration of militia forces. The currency of political power in Iraq to this very day under this new democracy is still found at the end of a barrel of a gun. You have no political stake unless you have a militia” said CNN Baghdad correspondent, Michael Ware, on CNN’s AC 360 with Anderson Cooper.Mistrust between Shia and Sunni, moreover, casts doubt on assumptions that Iraqi forces are unified in their loyal to the government, rather than divided along sectarian lines. This concern begs the question: what will be Iran’s role within the Shiite ruling majority?

Evidence suggests a strong Iranian influence in Iraq. According to Mary Beth Sheridan of the Washington Post, one of the main sources of Iran's influence in Iraq is its longtime relationship with Shiite parties that came to power after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government. What’s more, Iran has close ties with one of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s coalition partners, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), which was formed by Iraqi Shiite exiles while they were in Iran.“Everyone wants the United States to stay,” said Rafed Bedan, 27, a barber from Basra to the New York Times, “and we will remain unable to solve our problems without America. Iran will play a vital role in Iraq if America departs. American forces are the savior of the Iraqi people. Without American troops we will be one of Iran’s cities.” How far into Iraq will Turkey go to pursue Kurdish guerrillas?

In the northeast of Iraq, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K), is reportedly using Iraqi territory as a base for their military operations in support of more independence for the Kurdish minority in Turkey. According to Reuters, the P.K.K. took up arms to establish an ethnic homeland in southeast Turkey in 1984, and about 40,000 people have been killed. The United States, Iraq, and Turkey have condemned the P.K.K. as a terrorist organization. The situation is complicated because the P.K.K. use northern Iraq as a base. As a result, Turkish warplanes have bombed Kurdish separatist positions in northern Iraq. According to the Los Angeles Times, the most recent bombing took place on Dec. 1, 2008. Fears persist that once U.S. troops leave Iraq, Turkey may scale up its military operations within Iraq’s borders. “The coalition forces are the best solution to Iraq’s situation,” said Jaleel Mahmood, 31, from Sulaimaniya in Kurdish region to the New York Times. “They are just like a strong dam against the outside and the inside enemies and even the neighboring countries. They are all wolves - the Arabs, the Persians and the Turks. With all of the problems facing Iraq after U.S. troops withdraw from Iraq, there are some possible scenarios and solutions that have been proposed. The pros and cons of breaking up“Iraq will break apart into three jagged-edged segments,” wrote New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman in his Q&A segment, “a Kurdish zone in the north, a Sunni zone in the East and a Shiite zone in the south, with Baghdad becoming partitioned in a similar fashion. Turkey would be tempted to go into Kurdistan to prevent Kurdish independence, unless we intervened to prevent that. Syria would get more closely involved in openly supporting the Sunnis in Iraq and the Shiites in Iran, so the civil war would definitely take on a more regional dimension.”

On Nov. 20, 2008 Peter Galbraith, a former U.S. ambassador to Croatia, said that Iraq should split into three separate countries, one for each of the ethnic groups in the region: Sunni, Shiite and Kurd. "If we can minimize the kinds of things that Sunnis and Shiites are going to fight over,” Galbraith said to NPR’s Robert Siegel, “it may be, over time, that they will find it in their interests to have much greater cooperation and that voluntarily they'll build a stronger Iraqi state," Michael Ware of CNN has pointed out potential problems with the proposal made by Mr. Galbraith. Any partition, according to Ware, would impact on the interests of the regional players, thereby provoking them to increase their negative activities in Iraq. For instance, he added, the Arab states could feel obliged to actively support the Sunni insurgencies and even Al Qaeda, thus rendering partition a non-solution.

Uncertainty is the only certainty facing Iraq. The U.S. will ultimately withdraw its troops out of Iraq before or at the end of 2011. Many things can happen between now and then that could help or diminish the chances of Iraq taking charge of its future, whatever that future may be.“I want them to go, but at the same time I don’t want them to do so! I don’t want it because there is no one to lead Iraq with the right way,” said Raya Khaled, 50, a teacher from Mosul Iraq to the New York Times. A departure now would affect negatively on Iraqi citizens, whether Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish or Christian, Khaled added. Khaled then contradicted himself and highlighted the “Catch 22.”“I want them to go because their remaining makes me feel that I am a slave.”